In opposition to the Fed Brick Wall

January 12, 2023 ( Newswire) S&P 500 continued reversing the Powell fears after the Swedish nothingburger with barely a consolidation. The consensus is for a really low CPI determine, fairly properly even undershooting the 6.5% mark. I am a bit extra cautious, and considering 6.6 – 6.7% is extra applicable, and that the core determine would show notably sticky. Sufficient for the Fed to be unforfortable too, and undoubtedly not quit climbing earlier than Fed funds fee makes it to my (in the mean time each real looking and conservative evaluation of) 5.50% degree – degree which the Fed could over time discover as not restrictive sufficient.

Please revisit yesterday’s article for extra CPI sport plan ideas. What’s price watching as we speak, is treasured metals and yields jubilation because the boat is tilting an excessive amount of in the way in which of an unequivocally bullish (risk-on) decision. Take a look at jubilant cryptos – risk-on is taking part in a sport of rooster with the Fed, operating towards the proverbial wall. Purchase the rumor, promote the information – anybody?

Hold having fun with the vigorous Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on prime of getting the important thing day by day analytics proper into your mailbox. Lots will get addressed there (or on Telegram should you choose), however the analyses (whether or not quick or lengthy format, relying on market motion) over e mail are the bedrock.
So, ensure you’re signed up for the free e-newsletter and that you’ve got my Twitter profile open with notifications on in order to not miss a factor, and to profit from additional intraday calls.

Let’s transfer proper into the charts (all courtesy of

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

My key “level of management” degree of three,955 was overcome simply, and the subsequent goal of 3,980 got here. With barely a trepidation, as a substitute of constructing a springboard by declining into the CPI announcement, markets simply salivate to go up – for 4,010 or increased targets whereas not trying again to three,910.

Credit score Markets

Bonds closed on a vibrant be aware, but confirmed extra hesitation intraday – and which means shares are these within the extra prolonged momentary place. Purchaser beware, using a good cease loss being one becoming concept for as we speak.

Crude Oil

Quoting a few of my yesterday’s phrases – crude oil shares will maintain doing high-quality as crude oil regularly recovers. Additionally when much less hawkish Fed ideas are concerned, black gold would really like that.


Copper stays a vibrant spot, however I am nonetheless searching for a fast consolidation within the days forward. Silver and base metals are one of the best picks, flying out of warehouses regardless of the approaching recession.

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